आर्थिक सर्वे
आर्थिक सर्वे में नोटबंदी से आर्थिक विकास की रफ़्तार धीमी पर अस्थाई मानी जा रही है। बजट में कुछ नीतिगत उपायों के संकेत, तभी तेज हो पायेगी जीडीपी दर।
संसद में मंगलवार को पेश आर्थिक सर्वेक्षण २०१६-१७ पहला एक ऐसा सरकारी दस्तावेज था जिसमें स्वीकार किया गया कि नोटबंदी के कारण देश की आर्थिक विकास की रफ़्तार धीमी हुई है और इसकी गति तभी बढाई जा सकती है जब मांग बढ़ने वाले नीतिगत उपाय अपनाये जाएँ। इसमें कहा गया है कि ८ नवम्बर को सरकार के नोटबंदी के फैसले का प्रतिकूल प्रभाव पड़ा है लेकिन यह अस्थाई ही रहेगा।
आर्थिक सर्वे के मुताबिक, चालू वित्त वर्ष का जीडीपी यानि विकास दर ६.5 प्रतिशत रहने का अनुमान है जो पिछले वित्त वर्ष की अनुमानित विकास दर का 7.६ प्रतिशत से बहुत कम है। जबकि केंद्रीय सांख्यिकी विभाग (सीपीओ) द्वारा हाल में जारी ७.१ प्रतिशत के अनुमान से भी कम है। हालाँकि सर्वे में उम्मीद जताई गई है कि वर्ष २०१७-१६ के दौरान देश कि अर्थव्यवस्था ६.७५ से लेकर ७.५ फीसदी की विकास दर से संभल जाएगी। अर्थव्यवस्था में जान फूकने के लिए सर्वे में कुछ ख़ास उपाय भी प्रस्तावित किए गए हैं।
इनमे से कुछ ख़ास उपाय होंगे – कर दरों में कमी, स्टाम्प शुल्क में कटौती और कर प्रबंधन में सुधर लाना ताकि लोगों को कर अदायगी के लिए प्रोत्साहित किया जा सके। अन्य प्रस्तावों में पुनर्मुद्रिकरण तेज करने और नकद निकासी सीमा को यथा शीघ्र करने के उपाय शामिल हैं। सर्वे में डिजिटल को बढ़ावा देने कि ख़ासियत को स्वीकार किया गया है। लेकिन साथ ही लोगों को डिजिटल प्रक्रिया अपनाने के लिए दबाब डालने के बजाय उन्हें पुरस्कार से प्रोत्साहित करने पर जोर दिया गया है।
सर्वे में कहा गया है कि नोटबंदी से अर्थव्यस्था को लम्बे समय तक लाभ होगा क्योंकि इससे भ्रस्टाचार कम होगा, बचत को बढ़ाबा मिलेगा और इसके परिणाम स्वरूप बेहतर कर अनुपालन और अधिकतम कर राजस्व के साथ डीजीपी दर भी अधिक होगी। सर्वे में कुछ बहरी गतिविधियों के प्रति भी चेताया गया है। यानि, अंतर्राष्ट्रीय स्टार पर कच्चे तेल कि कीमत वृद्धि और अन्य देशों कि राजनितिक गतिविधियाँ, जिनका भारत के कारोबार और अर्थव्यवस्था पर प्रतिकूल प्रभाव पड़ सकता है। इसकी मिशाल अमरीकी सरकर द्वारा वीजा नियमों में सख्ती के संकेत से देखी जा सकती है।
सर्वे में अप्रत्यक्ष कर सुधार, अगले वित्त वर्ष में लागू होने वाले जीएसटी से बड़ी उम्मीद जताई गई है और सुझाव दिया गया है कि जीएसटी के तहत रियल एस्टेट और जमीन को भी लाया जाए। सीआईआई के अध्यक्ष नौशाद फ़ोर्ब्स कहते हैं कि आर्थिक सर्वे में जो विचार सुझाये गए हैं, उनसे उद्योग जगत को उम्मीद जगी है कि बजट पेश होने के बाद अगले कुछ वर्षों में कुछ नए मुद्दों पर चर्चा शुरू हो सकती है। आर्थिक सर्वे पेश करते हुए वित्त मंत्री ने कहा कि बजट पेश करने के बाद लोग ट्विटर के जरिये उनसे हैशटैग #MyQuestionToFM पर बजट सम्बन्धी सबल कर सकते हैं।
नोटबंदी से डूबेगी ०.५ प्रतिशत विकास दर
नोटबंदी के कारण चालू वित्त वर्ष की आर्थिक विकास दर ०.२५ प्रतिशत से लेकर ०.५ प्रतिशत तक कम हो जाएगी। जबकि अर्थव्यवस्था के लिए यह नोटबंदी दीर्घकालीन लाभ देगी और ब्याज दरों के साथ ही भ्रष्टाचारभी कम करेगी।
प्रॉपर्टी कि कीमतें गिरेंगी
वर्ष २०१६-१७ के लिए पेश आर्थिक सर्वे में कहा गया है कि नोटबंदी के बाद जमीन-जायदाद कि कीमतों में गिरावट आएगी। क्योंकि नोटबंदी के कारण अघोषित आय को रियल एस्टेट में निवेश करना बहुत मुश्किल करना हो गया है।
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